It looks like it only takes 4 rolls to have a 50% chance of getting a double … smaller than you might think! The more trials we do, the more accurate our results. You can run many trials in the applet below:
You can also use the applet above to try different number of sides on the dice. How many rolls do you think it would take to have a 50% chance to get a double on a 20 sided dice?
If you extend this question to 365 sides … it is the Birthday Problem! How many people do you have to have in a room for there to be over 50% chance of two people sharing a birthday? Try and discover the answer using the applet above, or see our card deck website for the maths behind the answer.
I have a 10-sided dice
with sides numbered: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.
I roll the dice many
times until a same number has come up twice.
Example: 3, 1, 5, 6, 8,
4, 5
5 has come up twice so I
stop. It took 7 rolls for this to happen.
How many times do I need roll the dice until
I am certain to roll a same number twice?
What is the smallest number of times I can
roll the dice before I could get a same number twice?
How many times do I need to roll the dice
until there is a 50% chance of getting a same number twice….? Try to do an
experiment to find out….
Experiment: Use your
calculator (RanInt#(1,10)) to simulate a dice roll. Keep rolling until you get
a same number twice. Repeat this experiment 50 times in total and complete the
table below.
Or write a program in Python to do this for you.
(Using a simulation to learn about probabilities is called a Monte Carlo Simulation)
See here for a Python program and discussion of the solution and extensions …
Can you draw this curve smoothly using only a straight edge and a pencil?
You can do it by continuing this pattern:
You could try it on Python from this starting point. Note that the co-ordinates are not correct for the first segment yet!
You could even try to do it in all four quadrants:
Or at an angle:
There is an ancient art called cross stitching that uses these ideas. Instead of stitching, we could make Christmas cards for the Bazar de Noël using Python and a 3D printer … let me know your designs at [email protected]